A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
