Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the daybreak reports: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from Washington follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a principle well known to international relations experts: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to surrender the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
